THE PRECISION PROTOCOL

The Definitive Guide to USMLE Biostatistics.


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Chapter 11: The Essential Formulas

To achieve the Standard of Excellence for a HIGH score, you cannot afford to hesitate during the exam. This final chapter is your "Pre-Surgical Checklist." These are the exact mathematical relationships and core concepts that must be second nature before you sit for the USMLE Step 1, Step 2 CK or Step 3.

1. The Diagnostic Master Suite

  • Sensitivity: True Positives / (True Positives + False Negatives)


  • Specificity: True Negatives / (True Negatives + False Positives)


  • PPV (Prevalence Dependent): True Positives / (All Positives)


  • NPV (Prevalence Dependent): True Negatives / (All Negatives)


  • Likelihood Ratio (+): Sensitivity / (1 - Specificity)


  • Likelihood Ratio (-): (1 - Sensitivity) / Specificity

2. The Impact and Risk Matrix

  • Attributable Risk (AR): Risk in Exposed - Risk in Unexposed


  • Relative Risk (RR): Risk in Exposed / Risk in Unexposed


  • Odds Ratio (OR): (A x D) / (B x C)


  • Absolute Risk Reduction (ARR): Risk in Control - Risk in Treatment


  • Number Needed to Treat (NNT): 1 / ARR


  • Number Needed to Harm (NNH): 1 / AR

3. The Precision and Distribution Map

  • Standard Error (SEM): SD / sqrt(n)


  • 95% Confidence Interval: Mean +/- (2 x SEM)


  • Z-score: (Observed Value - Mean) / SD


  • The Power Principle: Power = 1 - Beta (The ability to detect a difference)


  • The 68-95-99.7 Rule: 1 SD = 68%, 2 SD = 95%, 3 SD = 99.7%
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